Escalating Verbal Conflict Between Ethiopia and Eritrea Raises Concerns of Military Confrontation

Mounting concerns have emerged about the chance of armed conflict among East African neighbours, the Ethiopian government and Eritrea, as hostile rhetoric has ratcheted up in the past few weeks.

Horn of Africa region
The Ethiopian government and Eritrea worked together in the internal conflict in northern Ethiopia but they have later become estranged.

What Has Ethiopia Declared?

Ethiopia's, being landlocked, demands for entry to the sea coast through Eritrean territory has sparked a fierce rhetorical conflict.

PM Abiy Ahmed initially stated publicly in the previous year that his government's sea access was an crucial concern, statements that Eritrean authorities ignored.

Diplomatic connections between the two countries have often been tense. Following a decades-long battle for independence, the Eritrean state, which has a 1,350km (840-mile) sea border, legally broke away from Ethiopia in the early 1990s, leaving it without sea access.

In 1998, a military clash erupted in which over a hundred thousand people were killed.

Recent Comments from Ethiopia's Officials

Prime Minister Abiy and army chief Field Marshal Birhanu Jula have publicly asserted ownership of Eritrean maritime facility of Assab – some 60 km from the frontier - and implied the intention to take it by force.

In early September, the Prime Minister said Ethiopia's "blunder" of losing entry to the sea as a because of Eritrea secession would be "addressed tomorrow".

Ethiopia's ambassador to Kenya, ex-military officer Bacha, said that Assab was "Ethiopian property" and would be returned "using武力".

Eritrea's Response to the Claims

In the face of persistent warnings from Ethiopia, Eritrea's reaction has been restricted to short statements on social media from Communications Head Yemane G..

Officials have denied Ethiopia's demand for maritime entry labeling it "hazardous" and a "harmful plan" of "territorial claims" – a policy of retaking lost territory.

Government spokespeople warned on mid-September that attempts to justify "blatant hostility" would have significant repercussions for Ethiopia and its neighbors and is a "boundary that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Military Activities on the Region

Currently, there are little evidence of large-scale army activities in the frontier regions between the neighboring states.

Nevertheless, in Ethiopia, national TV has shown completion events of thousands of cadets at multiple army bases.

The leader of human resources department of the armed forces, General Hachalu, commented lately in an interview that the defense forces was in a "reliable position" as "numerous of youths" were joining it, which he said was "a warning to our adversaries".

Past Background of the Dispute

For over fifty years from 1890, the territory was administered by Italian colonisers.

Following World War II, it was then controlled by the British administration before becoming a associated territory of the Ethiopian empire.

However in 1962 Emperor Haile Selassie I terminated this system and the region became fully incorporated into the Ethiopian state.

A three-decade long civil war occurred, finishing with military reversal in the early 1990s. Independence was then endorsed by voters in a referendum in 1993.

Temporarily in the 1990s, there were friendly connections between the leadership in Addis Ababa and Asmara, but they clashed over the specific demarcation of their shared boundary, resulting in war in 1998.

Though this finished in a truce in 2000, it was partially applied, and the two nations stayed at in dispute.

This situation improved in 2018, when the Prime Minister made gestures to Eritrea's leader the president. The both leaders endorsed a announcement that the conflict was finished – a action that earned Abiy the international recognition.

The two governments were then allies in the country's previous internal conflict in Tigray.

But diplomatic connections have subsequently deteriorated anew.

Diana Collins
Diana Collins

A seasoned financial analyst with over 15 years of experience in precious metals markets, specializing in UK investment strategies.