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Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.

The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction

The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: positive announcements are delivered from multiple capitals. Immense energy is allocated on managing particular approaches. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "peace".

After-Dark Attacks

As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from enemy soil, a capability afforded by timely intelligence. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to counter approaching guided weapons flew past – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by European allies.

Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense activated: defensive missiles deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably delivered by partner states. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly gives way to grim resignation: possibly the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from ruin and additional electricity failures.

Continuous Dangers

Following this, a heavy machine gun fired at a aerial vehicle close by, part of a rapid response unit – most likely Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its target.

With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: several casualties, destruction and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a need that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to substitute in the immediate future.

Ineffective Peace Efforts

The 28-point plan from Washington generated strong feelings, discussion and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.

Every new approach from Washington follows the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, certainly, persist.

Political Considerations

It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington works based on a principle familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration assumes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to relinquish the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.

The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from thinking that the status quo will not shift further in its advantage in the coming year.

Divergent Views

Therefore, Moscow is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the result.

On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding lives and land but avoiding a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its favour.

Present Conditions

Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: political desires to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their objective will now be much harder after current events, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.

These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.

Conclusion and Outlook

It took a mere seven days to eliminate the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.

While new proposals based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, mainly require ongoing international assistance.