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Usually, the National Football League's Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple pattern. It commonly functions as a form of apology. Sorry we misjudged your team in our preseason predictions.

In theory, it's a clear-cut line: the skipper who engineered the biggest improvement wins the award. However, it sparks an annual argument about expectations and whether we're genuinely honoring excellent coaching or merely the biggest shock.

Yet this year's competition is distinctly different. The group of candidates is remarkably deep. It has been the year of comebacks. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning division winners falling away and longtime strugglers rising collectively. In an normal season, a coach leading the his team to the top of the conference would make him the overwhelming front-runner. Yet in this wild and fun year, he's facing several other outstanding coaches.

Here is how the ideal ballot should shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors love quarterbacks. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. When you transform a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just fixed Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Given a proper environment, Williams has been given the opportunity to showcase his otherworldly talent. From Week 9, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a brief surge – it's consistent dominance. With his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, far less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the scheme instead of improvising. It is an attack constructed entirely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a heavy dose of play-action passes and a imaginative aerial game that creates wide receiver receivers all over the field. Williams has capitalized. And when openings haven't been there, he's been capable to create magic from broken plays.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a defined offensive blueprint. Almost each bet – rebuilding the offensive line, highlighting the tight ends, turning the QB into a rhythm thrower – has paid off. That's rare for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who walked into the organization with the level of expectations he did. For two straight cycles, he was the most sought-after candidate on the head coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a scheme dork but the kind of leader that can breathe new life into an organization.

In a ordinary year, he would be the clear-cut favorite. But the current is not a normal season!

The area where his case runs slightly unstuck is on defense. The Bears currently sit in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are surviving on turnovers, and turnovers are famously inconsistent. Coaches can emphasise creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is legitimate. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the team would be several wins worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is in place for sustained success. However Johnson falls just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar position to Johnson. He's another first-time leader who has engineered a dramatic resurgence. Over the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete all-around football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, he has nailed the leadership aspects, which wasn't a guarantee following his early public introduction and some of his offseason moves.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed their staff with the ideal coaching blend of youth and veteran savvy, he hired first-timers. Starting with the head coach himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That type of approach is intriguing on paper, but frequently collapses in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is learning a their job on the fly. Yet he has managed to bring everyone and everything together.

After an initial hot beginning, there was a risk that the season would go off the track. A midseason setback caused the team wobbling again. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. He didn't. Rather, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped chasing home-run plays and started seeking consistent ones. Coen recentered the attack around key players and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are evident. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's number three seed. Coen gets the slightest knock in the standings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year case has a defining moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback move.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a different quarterback and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have derailed the season in October. Instead, it shaped it. By the middle point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has regressed after that time, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, placing him just a single place ahead of other QBs.

Still