War-torn Myanmar Goes to the Polls in Widely Criticised 'Sham' Election.

Polling materials in Burma
Myanmar's military is holding a staggered vote over the next month.

Myanmar is going to the polls in a vote widely dismissed as a sham, with key opposition groups banned, many of their leaders jailed and a significant portion of the country unlikely to vote because of an continuing civil war.

A Phased Ballot Amid Conflict

The ruling junta is conducting a phased ballot nearly half a decade after it seized power in a takeover, which ignited widespread opposition and spiralled into a civil war.

Observers say the junta, with China's support, is seeking to legitimise and entrench its power as it seeks a way out of the devastating stalemate.

"The environment does not allow for the practice of the freedoms of free speech, association or peaceful assembly," UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk said.

More than 200 people have been prosecuted for disrupting or criticising the polls under a recently enacted legislation which imposes severe punishments, including the possibility of execution.

Film director Mike Tee, performer Kyaw Win Htut and entertainer Ohn Daing were among the prominent figures convicted under the law, which was enacted in July. They were each handed a seven-year jail term after criticising a film promoting the elections.

Logistical Nightmare and Coercion

Civilians are "facing pressure from all sides," Mr Türk noted in a comment, pointing out that resistance forces have made warnings urging people to boycott the polls.

The military has been fighting on multiple battlefields, against both pro-democracy fighters who oppose the coup, as well as ethnic armed organisations which have their own forces. It lost control of vast areas of the country in a series of major setbacks, but clawed back territory this year after sustained aerial bombardment enabled by support from China and Russia.

All of this and the fact that large parts of the country are still under rebel administration presents a massive logistical challenge for conducting an election.

A Limited Vote

Voting is set to take place in three phases over the coming weeks in 274 of the country's three hundred and thirty townships, with the remainder deemed not secure enough. Results are expected by late January.

There is not expected to be any voting in as much as one half of the country. Even in the townships that are voting, some districts will hold elections, making it difficult to forecast a possible turnout.

Six parties, including the junta-supported Union Solidarity and Development Party, are running nominees nationwide, while dozens more parties and independent candidates will compete only at the local levels.

Some 40 parties, including Aung San Suu Kyi's National League of Democracy, which achieved landslide victories in 2015 and 2020, have been banned. Suu Kyi and many of the party's senior figures have been imprisoned under charges broadly viewed as fabricated, while the rest are in exile.

Criticism and Rejection

"By splitting the vote into stages, the junta can adjust tactics if the results in the initial round do not go their way," commented Htin Kyaw Aye, a representative of the election-monitoring group Spring Sprouts.

Western governments, including the UK and the EU legislature, have rejected the vote as a pretence, while neighbouring group Asean has called for negotiations to come before any election.

The Burmese junta has dismissed condemnation of the polls, insisting that it aims to "return [the country] to a multi-party democratic system".

"The election is being held for our nation. It is being held for the people of Myanmar. It is not intended for the international community," a military representative stated at a briefing last week.

Military leader Min Aung Hlaing warned earlier this week that those who refuse to vote are rejecting "progress toward democracy".

Diana Collins
Diana Collins

A seasoned financial analyst with over 15 years of experience in precious metals markets, specializing in UK investment strategies.